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AI, Redistribution, and the Size of the Pie - Marginal REVOLUTION

AnnouncementResearchSep 14, 2026

Anthropic's economic team, including Anton Korinek and Chad Jones, projects that in its extreme scenario AI raises GDP by 32.4% by 2030 while labor's share falls from 60% to 45.2%, leaving total labor income roughly unchanged. The paper, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, finds cognitive occupations lose income, requiring about 9% of GDP to restore their wages. The author argues attrition, tax shifting, and rapid income-support expansion make compensation more feasible than the authors suggest.

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AnthropicCompanyAnton KorinekPersonChad JonesPerson
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